understanding and constraining uncertainty in
climate variability, change, and impacts


The Dartmouth Climate Modeling & Impacts Group (CMIG) works to characterize the origins and consequences of climate variability and change.

In particular, our group is interested in where, when, and how climate affects people and the natural and managed systems they care about.

Beyond identifying the risks of various climate impacts, we work to understand the physical processes governing such impacts, and diagnose and improve model representations of the processes that generate uncertainty in climate risks.

Our research spans a number of projects, including the following:

Hydroclimatic variability and dynamics

What combinations of low- and high-frequency ocean-atmopshere variability generate droughts? Our work aims to understand the forcings of hydroclimatic variability using paleoclimate data, instrumental observations, and models. As part of this, we investigate and diagnose the drivers of historical hydroclimate changes and the consequences for terrestrial climate and hydrology — from low-frequency modes of internal variability to vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Current projects include examination of modes of variability and the land surface in shaping historical drought events and the drivers of persistent drought risks in forced versus unforced climates.


Model diagnosis and evaluation

How well do models simulate the real-world Earth system processes we care about and what are the model schemes responsible for structural uncertainties in such processes? There is a high degree of uncertainty in future climate changes, for example, due to the range of scales required to simulate things like precipitation and turbulent fluxes in models and the uncertainty inherent in a complex climate. Our work aims to understand the sources of model response uncertainty and constrain such uncertainty using data-model comparisons to improve model fidelity (and the prediction of the range of climate outcomes this coming century). Current projects include the role of land surface schemes and assumptions (pariticualry vegetation and snow) on hydroclimate and hydrology.


Human and ecosystem impacts of climate change

Translating the range of outcomes in physical climate impacts is insufficient to understand what such impacts imply for people and the systems they value. For example, snow is projected to melt in a warmer world, but the human impacts of reduced snowpack depends on where and how people use snow. The aim of this work is to incorporate other sciences, both social and natural, to translate physical climate impacts into impacts on people and ecosystems. Current projects include an examination of the risks of declines in future water availability given human water demands and reconciling top-down and bottom-up approaches to identifing climate-driven impacts on agriculture.


Adaptation decision-making

We know that model-simulated internal variability is sufficient to mask, amplify, or reverse the direction of anthropogenically-forced trends in temperature, circulation, and precipitation at large spatial and temporal scales, complicating adaptation decisions. Characterizing the most likely climate outcome is not sufficient for planning. Rather, quantifying the full extent of outcomes from internal variability under global warming is key to enable robust adaptation in the face of uncertain climate threats. Current projects include identification of the time of emergence and distribution of benefits of adaptations.



denotes research led by the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group
Underlined are: PI-advised (P)ostdoc, (G)rad student, (U)ndergrad

Submitted or in revision

  1. Ospina et al. Ten New Insights on Climate Science 2024, submitted | Email to request copy

  2. Lesk, C. (P), J. M. Winter, & J. S. Mankin Projected runoff declines from plant physiological effects on precipitation, revising | Email to request copy

  3. Jiang, Y., J. E. Smerdon, R. Seager, G. Wang, B. I. Cook, C. Zheng, J. S. Mankin, A. P. Williams The influence of land-surface conditions on the 2020-21 Western US Drought submitted | Email to request copy

  4. ♦ Mankin, J. S., N. Siegert (RA) , J. E Smerdon , B. I. Cook , R. Seager , A. P. Williams , C. S. Lesk (P) , Z. Li (P), H. Singh , E. D. Martinez (U), Nonlinear carbon feedbacks diminish future freshwater availability, revising | Email to request copy

  5. Byrne, M. P., G. Hegerl, J. Scheff, A. Berg, C. Hohenegger, V. Humphrey, M. M. Lague, F. H. Lambert, J. S. Mankin, K. A. McColl, K. A. McKinnon, A. G. Pendergrass, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, Y. Zhang, Theory and the future of land-climate science, under review | Email to request copy

  6. Callahan, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin, Carbon majors and the scientific case for climate liability, revising | Email to request copy

  7. Pollack, A., J. Campbell, C. Madison, C. Cooper, M. Coronese, J. Doss-Gollin, P. Hedge, C. Helgeson, C. Lesk (P), J. S. Mankin, E. Mayfield, R. Nicholas, S. Roth, V. Srikrishnan, N. Tuana, K. Keller, Peer-reviewed climate change research has a transparency problem. The scientific community needs to do better under review | Email to request copy

Peer-reviewed journal articles

  1. Li, Z. (P), J. E Smerdon, R. Seager, N. Siegert (RA), Mankin, J. S. (2024). Emergent trends complicate the interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor, AGU Advances, 10.1029/2023AV001070 | PDF | Replication Code
    See media coverage in: LA Times, Eos, NIDIS, Dartmouth News
  2. Fallah, A., M. A. Barlow, L. Agel, J. Kim, J. S. Mankin, D. M. Mocko, C. B. Skinner (2024). Impact of vegetation assimilation on flash drought characteristics across the continental United States, Journal of Hydrometeorology | Email to request copy |
  3. Callahan, C. (G), N. J. Dominy, J. M. DeSilva, J. S. Mankin (2024). Research Highlight: Global warming juices MLB home runs, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1 | PDF | Replication Code
  4. Gottlieb, A. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2024). Evidence of human influence on Northern Hemisphere snow loss, Nature, 10.1038/s41586-023-06794-y | PDF | Replication Code
  5. Callahan, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2023). Persistent effect of El Niño on global economic growth, Science, 10.1126/science.adf2983 | PDF | Replication Code
  6. Gottlieb, A. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2023). Snow drought & its impacts - Insights from Quantifying and Sourcing Specific Uncertainties, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0243.1 | PDF | Replication Code
  7. Callahan, C. (G), N. J. Dominy, J. M. DeSilva, J. S. Mankin (2023). Global warming, home runs, and the future of America’s pastime, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0235.1 | PDF | Replication Code
  8. Callahan, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2022). Globally unequal effect of extreme heat on economic growth, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.add3726 | PDF | Replication Code
  9. Cook, B. I., J. E. Smerdon, E. R. Cook, A. P. Williams, K. P. Anchukaitis, J. S. Mankin, alphabetical thereafter (2023). Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-022-00329-1 | PDF |
  10. Hoell, A. , X-W Quan, M. Hoerling, H. F. Diaz, R. Fu, C. He, J. R. Lisonbeeb, A. Sheffield, I. R. Simpsoni, E. R. Wahl, J. S. Mankin, R. Seager (2022). Water Year 2021 Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in California and Nevada, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0112.1 | PDF |
  11. Coffel, E. (P), C. Lesk (P), & J. S. Mankin (2022). Earth system model overestimation of cropland temperatures scales with agricultural intensity, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2021GL097135 | PDF | Replication Code
  12. Callahan, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2022). National attribution of historical climate damages, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03387-y | PDF | Replication Code
  13. He, Y. (P), J. Chipman, N. Siegert (U), J. S. Mankin (2022). Rapid land cover and land use change in the Indo-Malaysian region over the last 34 years based on AVHRR NDVI data, Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 10.1080/24694452.2022.2077168 | PDF | Replication Code
  14. Williams, A.P., B. Livneh, K. A. McKinnon, W. D. Hansen, J. S. Mankin, B. I. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, A. M. Varuolo-Clarke, N. R. Bjarke, C. S. Juang, D. P. Lettenmaier (2022). Growing impact of wildfire on western United States water supply, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2114069119 | PDF |
  15. Coffel, E. (P), C. Lesk (P), J. Winter, E. Osterberg, J. S. Mankin (2022). Crop-climate feedbacks boost U.S. maize and soy yields, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4aa0 | PDF | Replication Code
  16. Gottlieb, A. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2022). Observing, measuring, and assessing the consequences of snow drought, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0243.1 | PDF | Replication Code
    See media coverage in: WNYC, NHPR, Dartmouth, Phys.org
  17. Hoell, A., X Quan, M. Hoerling, R. Fu, J. S. Mankin, I. Simpson, R. Seager, C. He, J. Lisonbee, B. Livneh, A. Sheffield, (2022). Record Low 2020 North American Monsoon Rains Reignites American Southwestern Drought, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0129.1 | PDF |
  18. Mankin, J. S., I. Simpson, A. Hoell, R. Fu, J. Lisonbee, A. Sheffield, D. Barrie (2021). NOAA Drought Task Force Report on the 2020–2021 Southwestern U.S. Drought, NOAA MAPP/NIDIS, 10.25923/j0rj-an85 | PDF |
  19. Cook, B. I., J. S. Mankin, A. P. Williams, K. Marvel, J. E. Smerdon, H. Liu (2021). Uncertainties, limits, and benefits of climate change mitigation for soil moisture drought in Southwestern North America, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2021EF002014 | PDF |
  20. Huang, H., C. M. Patricola, J. M. Winter, E. C. Osterberg, J. S. Mankin (2021). Rise in Northeast US extreme precipitation caused by Atlantic variability and climate change, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100351 | PDF |
  21. McDermid, S. S., B. I. Cook, M. DeKauwe, J. S. Mankin, J. E. Smerdon, A. P. Williams, R. Seager, M. J. Puma, I. Aleinov, M. Kelley, L. Nazarenko (2021). Disentangling the regional climate impacts of competing vegetation responses to elevated atmospheric CO2, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2020JD034108 | PDF |
  22. Scheff, J., J. S. Mankin, S. Coats, H. Liu (2021). CO2-plant effects do not account for the gap between dryness indices and projected dryness impacts in CMIP5 or CMIP6, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/abd8fd | PDF |
  23. Coffel, E. (P) & J. S. Mankin (2021). Thermal power generation is disadvantaged in a warming world, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/abd4a8 | PDF |
  24. Mankin, J. S., F. Lehner, S. Coats, K. McKinnon (2020). The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision-making, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2020EF001610 | PDF |
    See media coverage in: Earth's Future Highlight
  25. Callahan, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2020). The influence of internal climate variability on projections of synoptically-driven Beijing haze, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2020GL088548 | PDF |
  26. Cook, B. I., J. S. Mankin, K. M. Marvel, A. P. Williams, J. E. Smerdon, K. J. Anchukaitis (2020). Twenty-first century drought projections from the CMIP6 forcing scenarios, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2019EF001461 | PDF |
  27. Qin, Y., J. T. Abatzoglou, S. Siebert, L. S. Huning, A. AghaKouchak, J. S. Mankin, C. Hong, D. Tong, S. J. Davis, N. D. Mueller (2020). Agricultural vulnerability to changing snowmelt, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-020-0746-8 | PDF |
  28. He, Y. (P), E. Lee, J. S. Mankin (2020). Seasonal tropospheric cooling over Northeastern China associated with cropland expansion, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab6616 | PDF |
  29. Winter, J. M., H. Huang (G), E. C. Osterberg, J. S. Mankin (2020). Anthropogenic impacts on the exceptional precipitation of 2018 in the Mid-Atlantic United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0172.1 | PDF |
  30. Lehner, F., A. W. Wood, J. A. Vano, D. M. Lawrence, M. P. Clark, J. S. Mankin (2019). The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x | PDF |
  31. Mankin, J. S., R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams (2019). Mid-latitude freshwater availability reduced by projected vegetation responses to climate change, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-019-0480-x | PDF |
  32. Raymond, C. (G) & J. S. Mankin (2019). Assessing present and future coastal moderation of extreme heat in the Eastern United States, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab495d | PDF |
  33. Coffel, E. (P), B Keith, C. Lesk, E. Bower, J. Lee, R. M. Horton, J. S. Mankin (2019). Future Hot and Dry Years Worsen Nile Basin Water Scarcity Despite Projected Precipitation Increases, Earth's Future, 10.1029/2019EF001247 | PDF |
  34. Coffel, E. (P), R. M. Horton, J. M. Winter, J. S. Mankin (2019). Nonlinear increases in extreme temperatures paradoxically dampen increases in extreme humid-heat, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/ab28b7 | PDF |
  35. Schultz, K. A. and J. S. Mankin (2019). Is Temperature Exogenous? The Impact of Civil Conflict on the Instrumental Climate Record in Sub-Saharan Africa, American Journal of Political Science, 10.1111/ajps.12425 | PDF |
    See media coverage in: The Washington Post
  36. Bishop, D. A., A. P. Williams, R. Seager, A. M. Fiore, B. I. Cook, J. S. Mankin, D. Singh, J. E. Smerdon, M. P. Rao (2019). Investigating the causes of increased twentieth-century fall precipitation over the southeastern United States, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0244.1 | PDF |
  37. Trugman, A. T., D. Medvigy, J. S. Mankin, W. R. L. Anderegg (2018). Soil moisture drought as a major driver of carbon cycle uncertainty, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2018GL078131 | PDF |
  38. Cook, B. I., J. S. Mankin, K. Anchukaitis (2018). Climate change and drought: from past to future, Current Climate Change Reports, 10.1007/s40641-018-0093-2 | PDF |
  39. Mankin, J. S. , R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams, R. M. Horton (2018). Blue water tradeoffs with CO2-enriched ecosystems, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2018GL077051 | PDF |
  40. Skinner, C. B., C. J. Poulsen, J. S. Mankin (2018). Amplification of heat extremes by plant CO2 physiological forcing, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-018-03472-w | PDF |
  41. Diffenbaugh, N. S., D. Singh, J. S. Mankin (2018). Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.aao3354 | PDF |
  42. Cook, B. I., A. P. Williams, J. S. Mankin , R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, D. Singh (2018). Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the contiguous United States, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0172.1 | PDF |
  43. Ault, T., S. St. George, J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, J.S. Mankin, C. Carrillo, B. I. Cook, S. Stevenson (2018). A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1 | PDF |
  44. Swain, D. L., D. Singh, D. Horton, J. S. Mankin, T. Ballard, N. S. Diffenbaugh (2017). Remote linkages to anomalous winter atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2017JD026575 | PDF |
  45. Williams, A. P., Cook, B. I., Smerdon, J. E., Bishop, D. A., Seager, R., Mankin, J. S. (2017). The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2017JD027523 | PDF |
  46. Hydro2K Consortium - J. E. Smerdon, J. Luterbacher, S. Phipps, K.J. Anchukaitis, T.R. Ault, S. Coats, K.M. Cobb, B.I. Cook, C. Colose, T. Felis, A. Gallant, J.H. Jungclaus, B. Konecky, A. LeGrande, S. Lewis, A. S. Lopatka, W. Man, J.S. Mankin, J.T. Maxwell, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, J.W. Partin, D. Singh, N.J. Steiger, S. Stevenson, J.E. Tierney, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang, A. Atwood, L. Andreu-Hayles, S.H. Baek, B. Buckley, E.R. Cook, R. D'Arrigo, S.G. Dee, M. Griffiths, C. Kulkarni, Y. Kushnir, F. Lehner, C. Leland, H.W. Linderholm, A. Okazaki, J. Palmer, E. Piovano, C.C. Raible, M. P. Rao, J. Scheff, G.A. Schmidt, R. Seager, M. Widmann, A.P. Williams, E. Xoplaki (2017). Comparing data and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Climate of the Past, 10.5194/cp-2017-37 | PDF |
  47. Mankin, J.S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A.P. Williams, and R. Seager (2017). The curious case of projected twenty-first-century drying but greening in the American West, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0213.1 | PDF |
  48. Diffenbaugh, N.S., D. Singh, J.S. Mankin, A. Charland, M. Haugen, D.E. Horton, D.L. Swain, D.E. Touma, M. Tsiang, B. Rajaratnam (2017). Quantifying the influence of observed global warming on the probability of historically unprecedented extreme climate events, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.1618082114 | PDF |
  49. Mankin, J.S., D. Viviroli, A.Y. Hoekstra, R. Horton, J. Smerdon, and N.S. Diffenbaugh (2017). Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5efc | PDF |
  50. Ault, T.R., J.S. Mankin, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon (2016). Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st Century megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.1600873 | PDF |
  51. Coats, S. and J.S. Mankin (2016). The challenge of accurately quantifying future megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1002/2016GL070445 | Email to request copy |
  52. Singh, S., D. L. Swain, J.S. Mankin, D.E. Horton, L. Thomas, N.S. Diffenbaugh (2016). Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1002/2016JD025116 | PDF |
  53. Horton, R., J.S. Mankin, C. Lesk, E. Coffel, C. Raymond (2016). A Review of Recent Advances in Research on Extreme Heat Events, Current Climate Change Reports, 10.1007/s40641-016-0042-x | PDF |
  54. Mankin, J.S., D. Viviroli, D. Singh, A.Y. Hoekstra, N.S. Diffenbaugh (2015). The potential for snow to supply human water demand in the present and future, Environmental Research Letters, 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114016 | PDF |
  55. Mankin, J.S., N.S. Diffenbaugh (2015). Influence of temperature and precipitation variability on near-term snow trends, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-014-2357-4 | PDF |
  56. Siegfried, T., T. Bernauer, R. Guiennet, S. Sellars, A.W. Robertson, J.S. Mankin, P. Bauer-Gottwein (2011). Will Climate Change Exacerbate or Mitigate Water Stress in Central Asia?, Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z | PDF |
  57. Mankin, J.S. (2009). Gaming the system: how Afghan opium underpins local power, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 63, No. 1., | PDF |

Peer-reviewed book chapters

  1. Moore, F.C., J.S. Mankin, and A.H. Becker (2015). Disciplines: Integrating Climate and Social Sciences, Chapter 4 in, Climate Cultures: Anthropological Perspectives on Climate Change , Yale University Press | Email to request copy

Other writing

  1. Mankin, J. S., (2024). The people have a right to climate data, The New York Times
  2. Lesk, C. S. (P) & J.S. Mankin, (2023). Making sense of data from Land Surface Models (LSMs), NCAR CLimate Data Guide
  3. Mankin, J. S. & C. Callahan (G), (2023). The other climate change, Los Angeles Times
  4. Callahan, C. (G) & J.S., Mankin, (2023). MLB home run counts are rising and global warming is playing a role, The Conversation
  5. Mankin, J. S. & C. Callahan (G) , (2022). The Scientific Case for Climate Liability and Loss and Damage Claims, Lawfare
  6. Mankin, J. S., (2021). The American West’s drought isn’t a disaster. It’s our new, permanently arid normal, The Washington Post
  7. Fu, R., I. Simpson, J. S. Mankin, A. Hoell, D. Barrie, (2021). Fueled by climate change, costly Southwest drought isn’t going away, The Washington Post
  8. Fu, R., A. Hoell, J. S. Mankin, A. Sheffield, I. Simpson, (2021). Tackling Challenges of a Drier, Hotter, More Fire-Prone Future, EOS
  9. Coffel, E. (P) & J. S. Mankin, (2020). In the future there will be more rain, but less water, in the Nile Basin, The Conversation
  10. Mankin, J.S. , R. Seager, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, A. P. Williams, (2019). Will plants help make the planet wetter or drier in a changing climate?, Carbon Brief
  11. Schultz, K. & J. S. Mankin, (2019). The weather stations that monitor climate change are at risk. This is why., The Washington Post (Monkey Cage)
  12. Mankin, J.S. , (2011). Rotten to the core, Foreign Policy
  13. Mankin, J.S. , (2005). Preventive semantics, Foreign Policy


Current Group Members

Erica Simon (she/her) studies Computer Science and Geography at Dartmouth College. She is currently a Neukom Scholar in the Climate Modeling & Impacts group, where she is working to assess projections of plant growth in the American West and its implications for future water availability. In her free time, Erica enjoys exploring Pine Park, playing lacrosse, and hiking.

Corey Lesk (he/him) is a Neukom Postdoctoral Fellow and a Fonds de recherche du Québec – Nature et technologies (FRQNT) Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. He is an environmental scientist interested in climate change and its impacts on people and nature. During his PhD at Columbia University, he studied how weather has affected food crops historically, drawing lessons to help adapt agriculture to a more extreme climate. He also assessed the greenhouse gas emissions likely to result from the climate transition. Corey is investigating how rising atmospheric carbon dioxide may change how crops and natural vegetation interact with climate extremes. His research integrates diverse observational data with biophysical and statistical models. Corey is also an enthusiastic environmental and climate educator.

Maggie O'Shea (she/her) is a PhD student in Dartmouth's Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society (EEES) program. She is most interested in research that helps to quantify the socioeconomic costs of climate impacts through linking climate models with tools from economics. Prior to joining Dartmouth, she received her BA in Environmental Studies at Bates College and received her Masters from Duke University, where she studied Environmental Economics.

Flora Perlmutter (she/her) is a PhD student in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group, interested in large scale hydroclimate and its response with climate change. She is interested in using her findings to help inform adaptation efforts. Flora is from California and holds a BA in Geochemistry and Environmental Biology from Washington University in St. Louis, awarded in 2022.

Alex Gottlieb (he/him) is a PhD candidate in Dartmouth's Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society (EEES) program. His Department of Energy funded research focuses on understanding how changes to the form, frequency, and intensity of precipitation in a warming climate interact with processes at the land surface to shape water availability for people and ecosystems.

He's from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and graduated from Princeton University in 2018 with a BA in Politics and certificates in Computer Science, Statistics and Machine Learning.

Justin Mankin (he/him) is a climate scientist, associate professor in the Department of Geography at Dartmouth College, and PI of the Dartmouth Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. He also holds courtesy appointments in the Department of Earth Sciences (EARS) and the Ecology, Evolution, Environment, & Society (EEES) graduate program, and is an Adjunct Research Scientist in the Division of Ocean & Climate Physics at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. His interdisciplinary research constrains the uncertainty essential to understanding and responding to climate change’s impacts on people and ecosystems. He currently serves as one of the co-leads of the NOAA Drought Task Force and is an Associate Editor for AGU's Earth's Future and AMS's Journal of Climate.

His previous career was as an intelligence officer working in South Asia and the Middle East. He's from Vermont, did his postdoctoral training at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and holds degrees from Columbia (BA, MPA), the London School of Economics (MSc), and Stanford (PhD).

Former Group Members

Ethan Coffel is a former Neukom Postdoctoral Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. Ethan studies how climate change is affecting extreme weather and how to quantify the impacts of these changes on human societies and natural ecosystems. He strives to understand the physical mechanisms driving changes in the climate and to clearly communicate climate change projections and their uncertainty.

He's from Iowa, has a BA from Northwestern University, and received his PhD from Columbia University, where he studied extreme heat and its impacts on human health and infrastructure. Ethan is now an assistant professor of geography at Syracuse University.

You can find more about Ethan at his website.

Yaqian He is a former Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. She uses remote sensing, statistics, and climate science to explore the effects of human-induced land use and land cover changes on monsoon climates, including the West Africa monsoon and the East Asia monsoon. In particular, she applies remote sensing to classify the land surface and statistical and climate models to examine the underlying physical mechanisms. Yaqian is now an assistant professor of geography at the University of Central Arkansas.

Yaqian holds a Bachelors in Survey Engineering from China University of Mining and Technology, an M.S. in Cartography and GIS from the School of Geography at Beijing Normal University, China, and a PhD from the Climatology Lab in the Department of Geography at West Virginia University.

You can find more about Yaqian at her website.

Marnee Singh (they/them) was a researcher in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group, interested in analyzing the overlying meteorology during drought events. Marnee's previous research experience includes observing free-tropospheric ozone trends over Northern California and analyzing the relationship between high-ozone events aloft and corresponding surface-level conditions. Marnee is from New York City and holds a BA from Columbia University. Marnee is now a PhD student in the Climate Extremes Modeling (CEM) Group at Stony Brook University.

Emily Martinez (she/her) is a former undergraduate researcher in CMIG. She earned a BE in Environmental Engineering from Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth. She is originally from Bell, California and it was her upbringing in the LA County that ultimately influenced her interest in the environment. She has research experience analyzing the environmental impacts of microplastics in polar regions as well as conducting Life Cycle Assessments for commercial products. Emily has since developed a passion for understanding climate change and the impact air pollution has on the environment. Outside of academics, she was a part of the Dartmouth Triathlon Team and competes in both short and long-distance triathlons.

Zhiying Li (she/her) is a former Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Dartmouth's Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. She works to understand the variability, drivers, and impacts of hydroclimatic extremes, such as drought and flooding, and water availability in a warming climate, using a wide range of approaches, including fully coupled Earth System Models, process-based hydrologic models, hydrologic theory, statistical analysis, and GIS. Her most recent project is about drought monitoring in a nonstationary climate in the contiguous U.S. Zhiying is now an assistant professor at the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University Bloomington.

Zhiying Li holds a Bachelors in Soil and Water Conservation from Northwest A&F University, China, an M.S. in Physical Geography from the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, and a Ph.D. from the Department of Geography at The Ohio State University. She recently won The Story Exchange's Women in Science Prize.

You can find more about Zhiying at her website.

Noel Siegert (he/him) is a former research assistant in the Dartmouth Climate Modeling & Impacts group. Primarily interested in the intersection between climate, migration, and human development, previous research involvements include studying robust decision-making approaches to water resource management. In his free time, he enjoys playing the trumpet and spending time outside. He is from Ipswich, Massachusetts and graduated from Dartmouth College in 2021 where he studied Geography, Spanish, and Economics. He is currently a PhD student at Columbia University.

Grace Bryant (she/her) will graduate from Dartmouth College with a degree in Earth Science. She is interested in the impact of climate change on global human health. She completed her Senior Earth Sciences thesis project with the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group to investigate the effects of snow drought on wildfire activity in the western United States. In her free time she loves to ski, backpack and bake cookies.

Christopher Callahan (he/him) graduated with his PhD from Dartmouth's Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society (EEES) program in August 2023. His National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship-funded research focused socioeconomic impacts of global warming, combining climate models and empirical methods to understand the economic impacts of hazards like heat waves and El Niño events.

He's from the suburbs of Chicago, and he graduated from Northwestern University in 2018 with a BA in Environmental Science, where he also led Northwestern's award-winning debate team and collaborated with researchers at the University of Chicago. He is currently a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University.

You can find more about Chris at his website.

Katya Pronichenko (she/her) is a former Geography and Environmental Science major at Dartmouth College who graduated in 2023. While part of CMIG, Katya investigated how different climate models represent post-wildfire regrowth, and wildfire's implications for drought and water availability. When she is not working, Katya loves to spend time in nature. One of her favorite pastimes is paragliding and appreciating the grand scale of the Earth's natural wonders She is currently an energy supply chain analyst at Wood Mackenzie in San Francisco.


Join our dynamic and inclusive group!

Postdoctoral Research

There are a couple of postdoc possibilities to work with our group beyond NOAA and NSF programs:

1. CMIG postdoctoral research position in drought-vegetation interactions

You can apply directly to work with the group on a NOAA-funded project on vegetation and drought, with collaborators at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. See the Interfolio application here or email Justin to discuss.

1. The Neukom Postdoctoral Research Fellowship

This is an interdsiciplinary computational postdoctoral fellowship sponsored by the Neukom Institute, based around an original proposal. If you have an interest in applying and being a postdoc in our group, this is one avenue to do so. Applications completed by November 15 receive full consideration. Email Justin to discuss.

Graduate Student Research

Graduate students can join the lab via two pathways pending funding, EEES and Earth Sciences. Please email Justin briefly stating your research interests and CV if you'd like to apply.

1. The Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems & Society (EEES) PhD program at Dartmouth College. See our group advertisement here. (The deadline is December 1, though it is somewhat flexible.)

2. The Department of Earth Sciences (EARS) at Dartmouth College. (Deadline January 15th.)

Undergraduate Research

If you are a Dartmouth undergraduate student, a geography department honors thesis student, or interested in working with the group on climate research send Justin an email briefly outlining your research interests and we can set up a time to discuss research projects beginning in the fall of 2018.


Department of Geography
Dartmouth College
6017 Fairchild
Hanover, NH 03755
Phone: (603) 646-3381
mankin [at] dartmouth [dot] edu
Ocean and Climate Physics
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
61 Route 9W, P.O. Box 1000
Palisades, NY 10964
Phone: (845) 365-8373
jsmankin [at] ldeo [dot] columbia [dot] edu
Copyright © Dartmouth Climate Group 2015