What combinations of low- and high-frequency ocean-atmopshere variability generate droughts? Our work aims to understand the forcings of hydroclimatic variability using paleoclimate data, instrumental observations, and models. As part of this, we investigate and diagnose the drivers of historical hydroclimate changes and the consequences for terrestrial climate and hydrology — from low-frequency modes of internal variability to vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Current projects include examination of modes of variability and the land surface in shaping historical drought events and the drivers of persistent drought risks in forced versus unforced climates.
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How well do models simulate the real-world Earth system processes we care about and what are the model schemes responsible for structural uncertainties in such processes? There is a high degree of uncertainty in future climate changes, for example, due to the range of scales required to simulate things like precipitation and turbulent fluxes in models and the uncertainty inherent in a complex climate. Our work aims to understand the sources of model response uncertainty and constrain such uncertainty using data-model comparisons to improve model fidelity (and the prediction of the range of climate outcomes this coming century). Current projects include the role of land surface schemes and assumptions (pariticualry vegetation and snow) on hydroclimate and hydrology.
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Translating the range of outcomes in physical climate impacts is insufficient to understand what such impacts imply for people and the systems they value. For example, snow is projected to melt in a warmer world, but the human impacts of reduced snowpack depends on where and how people use snow. The aim of this work is to incorporate other sciences, both social and natural, to translate physical climate impacts into impacts on people and ecosystems. Current projects include an examination of the risks of declines in future water availability given human water demands and reconciling top-down and bottom-up approaches to identifing climate-driven impacts on agriculture.
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We know that model-simulated internal variability is sufficient to mask, amplify, or reverse the direction of anthropogenically-forced trends in temperature, circulation, and precipitation at large spatial and temporal scales, complicating adaptation decisions. Characterizing the most likely climate outcome is not sufficient for planning. Rather, quantifying the full extent of outcomes from internal variability under global warming is key to enable robust adaptation in the face of uncertain climate threats. Current projects include identification of the time of emergence and distribution of benefits of adaptations.
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Erica Simon (she/her) studies Computer Science and Geography at Dartmouth College. She is currently a Neukom Scholar in the Climate Modeling & Impacts group, where she is working to assess projections of plant growth in the American West and its implications for future water availability. In her free time, Erica enjoys exploring Pine Park, playing lacrosse, and hiking.
Corey Lesk (he/him) is a Neukom Postdoctoral Fellow and a Fonds de recherche du Québec – Nature et technologies (FRQNT) Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. He is an environmental scientist interested in climate change and its impacts on people and nature. During his PhD at Columbia University, he studied how weather has affected food crops historically, drawing lessons to help adapt agriculture to a more extreme climate. He also assessed the greenhouse gas emissions likely to result from the climate transition. Corey is investigating how rising atmospheric carbon dioxide may change how crops and natural vegetation interact with climate extremes. His research integrates diverse observational data with biophysical and statistical models. Corey is also an enthusiastic environmental and climate educator.
Maggie O'Shea (she/her) is a PhD student in Dartmouth's Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society (EEES) program. She is most interested in research that helps to quantify the socioeconomic costs of climate impacts through linking climate models with tools from economics. Prior to joining Dartmouth, she received her BA in Environmental Studies at Bates College and received her Masters from Duke University, where she studied Environmental Economics.
Flora Perlmutter (she/her) is a PhD student in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group, interested in large scale hydroclimate and its response with climate change. She is interested in using her findings to help inform adaptation efforts. Flora is from California and holds a BA in Geochemistry and Environmental Biology from Washington University in St. Louis, awarded in 2022.
Alex Gottlieb (he/him) is a PhD candidate in Dartmouth's Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society (EEES) program. His Department of Energy funded research focuses on understanding how changes to the form, frequency, and intensity of precipitation in a warming climate interact with processes at the land surface to shape water availability for people and ecosystems.
He's from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and graduated from Princeton University in 2018 with a BA in Politics and certificates in Computer Science, Statistics and Machine Learning.
Justin Mankin (he/him) is a climate scientist, associate professor in the Department of Geography at Dartmouth College, and PI of the Dartmouth Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. He also holds courtesy appointments in the Department of Earth Sciences (EARS) and the Ecology, Evolution, Environment, & Society (EEES) graduate program, and is an Adjunct Research Scientist in the Division of Ocean & Climate Physics at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University. His interdisciplinary research constrains the uncertainty essential to understanding and responding to climate change’s impacts on people and ecosystems. He currently serves as one of the co-leads of the NOAA Drought Task Force and is an Associate Editor for AGU's Earth's Future and AMS's Journal of Climate.
His previous career was as an intelligence officer working in South Asia and the Middle East. He's from Vermont, did his postdoctoral training at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University and NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and holds degrees from Columbia (BA, MPA), the London School of Economics (MSc), and Stanford (PhD).
Ethan Coffel is a former Neukom Postdoctoral Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. Ethan studies how climate change is affecting extreme weather and how to quantify the impacts of these changes on human societies and natural ecosystems. He strives to understand the physical mechanisms driving changes in the climate and to clearly communicate climate change projections and their uncertainty.
He's from Iowa, has a BA from Northwestern University, and received his PhD from Columbia University, where he studied extreme heat and its impacts on human health and infrastructure. Ethan is now an assistant professor of geography at Syracuse University.
Yaqian He is a former Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. She uses remote sensing, statistics, and climate science to explore the effects of human-induced land use and land cover changes on monsoon climates, including the West Africa monsoon and the East Asia monsoon. In particular, she applies remote sensing to classify the land surface and statistical and climate models to examine the underlying physical mechanisms. Yaqian is now an assistant professor of geography at the University of Central Arkansas.
Yaqian holds a Bachelors in Survey Engineering from China University of Mining and Technology, an M.S. in Cartography and GIS from the School of Geography at Beijing Normal University, China, and a PhD from the Climatology Lab in the Department of Geography at West Virginia University.
Harry Singh (they/them) was a researcher in the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group, interested in analyzing the overlying meteorology during drought events. Harry’s previous research experience includes observing free-tropospheric ozone trends over Northern California and analyzing the relationship between high-ozone events aloft and corresponding surface-level conditions. Harry is from New York City and holds a BA from Columbia University. Harry is now a PhD student in the Climate Extremes Modeling (CEM) Group at Stony Brook University.
Emily Martinez (she/her) is a former undergraduate researcher in CMIG. She earned a BE in Environmental Engineering from Thayer School of Engineering at Dartmouth. She is originally from Bell, California and it was her upbringing in the LA County that ultimately influenced her interest in the environment. She has research experience analyzing the environmental impacts of microplastics in polar regions as well as conducting Life Cycle Assessments for commercial products. Emily has since developed a passion for understanding climate change and the impact air pollution has on the environment. Outside of academics, she was a part of the Dartmouth Triathlon Team and competes in both short and long-distance triathlons.
Zhiying Li (she/her) is a former Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Dartmouth's Climate Modeling & Impacts Group. She works to understand the variability, drivers, and impacts of hydroclimatic extremes, such as drought and flooding, and water availability in a warming climate, using a wide range of approaches, including fully coupled Earth System Models, process-based hydrologic models, hydrologic theory, statistical analysis, and GIS. Her most recent project is about drought monitoring in a nonstationary climate in the contiguous U.S. Zhiying is now an assistant professor at the O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University Bloomington.
Zhiying Li holds a Bachelors in Soil and Water Conservation from Northwest A&F University, China, an M.S. in Physical Geography from the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China, and a Ph.D. from the Department of Geography at The Ohio State University. She recently won The Story Exchange's Women in Science Prize.
Noel Siegert (he/him) is a former research assistant in the Dartmouth Climate Modeling & Impacts group. Primarily interested in the intersection between climate, migration, and human development, previous research involvements include studying robust decision-making approaches to water resource management. In his free time, he enjoys playing the trumpet and spending time outside. He is from Ipswich, Massachusetts and graduated from Dartmouth College in 2021 where he studied Geography, Spanish, and Economics. He is currently a PhD student at Columbia University.
Grace Bryant (she/her) will graduate from Dartmouth College with a degree in Earth Science. She is interested in the impact of climate change on global human health. She completed her Senior Earth Sciences thesis project with the Climate Modeling & Impacts Group to investigate the effects of snow drought on wildfire activity in the western United States. In her free time she loves to ski, backpack and bake cookies.
Christopher Callahan (he/him) graduated with his PhD from Dartmouth's Ecology, Evolution, Ecosystems, and Society (EEES) program in August 2023. His National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship-funded research focused socioeconomic impacts of global warming, combining climate models and empirical methods to understand the economic impacts of hazards like heat waves and El Niño events.
He's from the suburbs of Chicago, and he graduated from Northwestern University in 2018 with a BA in Environmental Science, where he also led Northwestern's award-winning debate team and collaborated with researchers at the University of Chicago. He is currently a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University.
Katya Pronichenko (she/her) is a former Geography and Environmental Science major at Dartmouth College who graduated in 2023. While part of CMIG, Katya investigated how different climate models represent post-wildfire regrowth, and wildfire's implications for drought and water availability. When she is not working, Katya loves to spend time in nature. One of her favorite pastimes is paragliding and appreciating the grand scale of the Earth's natural wonders She is currently an energy supply chain analyst at Wood Mackenzie in San Francisco.
If you are a Dartmouth undergraduate student, a geography department honors thesis student, or interested in working with the group on climate research send Justin an email briefly outlining your research interests and we can set up a time to discuss research projects beginning in the fall of 2018.